Otago schools have lost the equivalent of about 12.5 classrooms full of pupils as school rolls continue to decline across the region.
Recently released March roll-return statistics from the Ministry of Education show the rolls at Otago's primary and secondary schools dropped by a further 249 pupils in the year ending March 2009, despite a nationwide increase of 596 pupils.
Otago schools had the fourth-largest roll decline behind Manawatu-Wanganui (-635), Northland (-527) and Hawkes Bay (-262).
Since 2004, the number of pupils in Otago had decreased from 30,654 to 29,571 this year; a decline of 1083.
Otago Secondary Principals Association chairman and Kaikorai Valley College principal Philip Craigie believed the decline could be due to several factors.
"Anecdotally, the job market may be contributing to it. In the past two or three years, we've had several families up and leave to Australia for work and a better lifestyle. Many schools nationwide have reported this.
"There was also a dip in the birth rate which is coming through now. The secondary schools are starting to notice the follow-on from the drop in primary schools."
Mr Craigie said Otago, like other regions in New Zealand, was experiencing a baby boom at the moment, but it would be another 11 years before secondary schools would notice an influx in their rolls.
"The decline won't be stopping any time soon."
At March 1, 2009, the number of state, state-integrated and private schools in New Zealand was 2560, six fewer than a year earlier.
In the 12 months to March 2009, 12 schools closed, but seven new schools opened.
Of the seven new schools, four were in the Auckland region, one was in Wellington and two were in Canterbury.
The 12 schools that closed comprised four in Wellington, two each in Auckland, Otago and Southland, and one in both the Tasman and Canterbury regions.
Otago Primary Principals Association president Steve Hayward said some school communities would again have to consider their future in light of the continued roll decline.
"There are certainly some areas where it's wise for a community to ask themselves the question: Is it still viable to keep our school open - what is best for our children's education?"
All schools were concerned about the continued drop in Otago, Mr Hayward said.
"When a school has growing rolls and is operating in over-crowded classrooms, it can be difficult for them to get government funding when a nearby school has spare classrooms."
But it was a difficult decision to merge or close a school, he said.
Some schools, such as Hawea Flat, which once had very small rolls, were now bursting at the seams because of a shift in population.
"It's a tricky balancing act.
"There are some pockets in Otago on the increase, like Queenstown and Wanaka. There's potential for growth in places like Mosgiel, as well.
"It's good to see some areas are stabilising. We've been told about the baby boom. We haven't seen the effects of that yet, but we have to be prepared for it," he said.
