A ‘‘SIGNIFICANT-SIZED'' hospital may be built inland, in response to predicted population growth in Queenstown and Central Otago, health officials say.
A site for a hospital has not yet been considered, but Otago District Health Board chairman Richard Thomson said Dunstan Hospital was built ‘‘with the view in mind that it would have to be expanded''.
Population growth in Central Otago and Queenstown was coming at the expense of other areas of the southern region, such as Balclutha and Waitaki, Mr Thomson said.
‘‘There is no question there is plenty of evidence of relocation of population within the region.
Depending on the size of that growth and where it continues, there is very definitely the possibility that we may have to do something.
‘‘We are trying to project things out over the next 20 years. What might need to be done where and when. I don't think we have the answer to those questions.''
The possibility of developing hospital facilities inland was a long-term issue for both boards, but he did not see it as a major one for the next five years, Mr Thomson said. The Otago and
Southland District Health Boards are carrying out a four-phase review of hospital capacity in the southern region.
Regional general manager planning and funding Chris Fraser said the first phase had been to gather population statistics and to take stock of existing hospitals and bed numbers. Phase two would involve assessing the capacity required to meet the need of the predicted population changes and deciding how best to care for those people and identifying where the capacity should be. Phase three would involve public consultation, which he expected to take place either late this year or early next year.
The final phase would be presenting a proposal for the boards to consider.
‘‘It is far too early to be making any kind of projections of what the outcome will be. It is really important that we have a completely open mind.''
Chairman Errol Millar raised the issue at the community and public health advisory committee meeting on Tuesday.
Commenting on statistics which showed dramatic population growth in Queenstown and Central Otago, he said a ‘‘significant-sized'' hospital would probably be developed inland and the arguments would be about where.
fter the meeting, Mr Millar said the hospital would likely be a secondary-level hospital with ‘‘modest'' surgical and medical services.
‘‘Most specialist activity would continue to take place in Invercargill and, in particular, in Dunedin. It would complement those hospitals.
‘‘Down the track, it may well develop emergency capability as well.''
At present, Central Otago had an ‘‘accident room'' where emergency patients could be stabilised and then transferred by road or helicopter, he said.
While Queenstown people would probably like the hospital to be in Queenstown, the other possibility, to expand Dunstan Hospital, would better meet the needs of Central Otago and Wanaka, he said.
Mr Fraser said the population predictions showed ‘‘massive growth'' in Queenstown. Central Otago's total population was also predicted to grow during the next 20 years.
Figures from Queenstown Lakes District Council predicted Queenstown's population would double by 2016, rising from 24,100 in 2006 to 48,575 in 2016. Statistics New Zealand predicted the increase would be 30,500 by 2016.
Central Otago District Council predicted an increase from 17,100 in 2006 to 18,307 in 2016.
Predictions for Dunedin showed a relatively stable population while Clutha, Waitaki, Southland, Gore and Invercargill all showed downward trends.
However, in all areas, the proportion of people older than 65 - who traditionally use more health services - was predicted to increase, although in Queenstown the 40- to 65-year agebracket was predicted to grow faster than the over-65s.
While health bosses were ‘‘extremely aware'' the population was moving around the region, the problem with predictions was they were just that - predictions, Mr Fraser said.
‘‘There is only one thing you can guarantee about a prediction of the future and that is that it will be wrong.''
