The province suffered a 45-40 lost to Southland in Gore yesterday but picked up a crucial bonus point which could prove to be its lifeline.
Otago is tied for fourth place with Southland on six points.
Canterbury thrashed Auckland-Waitakere 71-53 in Christchurch to enhance its reputation as title favourite and is unbeaten after four games.
Competition surprise package Wellington is also unbeaten, dispatching Western 49-41 in Porirua yesterday to set up an exciting final round-robin match against Canterbury.
Both have secured a berth in the top four but Otago can upset Auckland-Waitakere's plans if it beats the defending champion without conceding a bonus point.
It would sneak ahead of the North Island team, which is in third place on nine points, and Southland could also overhaul Auckland with a win against Western in its final round-robin match.
It is possible Otago could still squeak through if it picked up a bonus point for a close loss and Southland was unexpectedly beaten by Western.
"Basically, we have to beat Auckland and that will put them out of the semifinals," Otago coach Deb Tasi-Cordtz explained.
"If we win, we will be a point ahead of them. Today's bonus point was pretty vital for us."
Tasi-Cordtz was relatively pleased with her team's effort against Southland, despite the loss.
The southern side got the edge through a stout defensive display and put up 14 more shots.
Steel duo Te Huinga Reo Selby-Rickit and Sheryl Scanlan cramped Otago's shooting combination of Te Paea Selby-Rickit and Greir Campbell and restricted their supply of ball with some physical and suffocating defence.
"Defensively they were good. Scanlan and Selby-Rickit put a lot of pressure on our shooters.
"They were really physical.
"We just had to work really hard to get the ball into the shooting circle and when we did it was really physical stuff in there."
Te Paea held her own against Te Huinga Reo in the battle of the Selby-Rickit sisters.
She landed 37 from 43 attempts and carried the Otago offensive effort.
The promising shooter shot the perfect game last week, scoring 49 goals from 49 attempts to help Otago beat Western.
Her form was encouraging but she had precious little support, with Campbell struggling to get into space inside the shooting circle and managing just seven attempts.
Scanlan could take most of the credit with some smothering defence.
Southland made a bright start getting out to a seven-goal lead at the first break.
Otago pegged back three goals and trailed 23-19 at halftime.
"We got plenty of ball and plenty of turnover ball," Tasi-Cordtz said.
"Defensively our team was really strong as well. But they put up more shots at goal than us and that is a fair indication of where we are at."
Hayley Saunders had a strong game for Otago in the midcourt and Julianna Naoupu dropped in some vital goals to keep Southland's buffer intact during the second half.
"She nailed some crucial shots when we had got to within two or three."
Tasi-Cordtz said against Auckland her side needed to do a better job of looking after its shooters and providing them with some cleaner ball.
"We need to give it to them nicely so they don't have to do as much work as they have been doing."
The tournament moves to Auckland on Thursday for the remainder of the round-robin matches and playoff games.
The finals will be held on Saturday.
National champs
The scores
Southland 45
Ashleigh Smith 19 from 29, Julianna Naoupu 26 from 35
Otago 40
Te Paea Selby-Rickit 37/43, Greir Campbell 3/7
Halftime 23-19
