The television presenter and former Otago midcourter was impressed with the Steel's 58-49 win against the Thunderbirds in Dunedin two weeks ago but believes the Australian side has the stronger line-up and should be too strong on its home court.
"The Steel have certainly got a chance of winning it, and they go in with the advantage of winning the round-robin match," Rowberry said.
"But the Thunderbirds will look back at that match and know they had a very, very average game for them. They are the team that can play a hell of a lot better, but I don't know how much better the Steel can play."
The Steel has not won in Australia and getting over that psychological barrier has proven tough for New Zealand sides.
The Magic managed a win against the Fever in Perth but no other New Zealand franchise has tasted success on Australian soil.
"Everyone has their own philosophy as to why that is but I think it has a lot to do with the umpiring. The Aussie umpires let a lot go, but they will have a New Zealand and an Australian umpire for the semifinals. That may help the Steel's cause."
The Thunderbirds bounced back from their defeat to the Steel and dismantled the Magic 54-35 in Adelaide on Sunday.
It was a remarkable turnaround and an indication they are capable of lifting their game.
"They played some spectacular netball. Their defence end certainly lifted from the week before. The good thing for the Steel is their strength is in their attacking end with the likes of [Donna] Wilkins and [Megan] Dehn.
"So they've got the skill to counteract the likes of Mo'onia Gerrard and Geva Mentor."
The Steel had a tidy midcourt, with former Silver Fern captain Adine Wilson providing good service for her shooters and Liana Barrett-Chase enhancing her reputation with some solid performances, Rowberry said.
But the Thunderbirds also had a talented midcourt, the von Bertouch sisters, Laura and Natalie, having played more than 50 tests for Australia.
"On paper you look at them and they probably are a better side.
"My heart says the Steel but if I had to put money on it, I'd probably go with the Thunderbirds."
