The Steel v Magic game in Invercargill on Monday has been billed as an unofficial trial for the Silver Ferns. But for the home side there is more at stake than spots in the national side.
Lose, and the Steel's road to the semifinals will follow a treacherously narrow mountain route; win and the path will appear relatively clear.
The ANZ Championship has reached its midway point and so far the Otago-Southland side has done about as well as expected, but no more. After six matches, it is just outside the top four with four wins.
It started well enough, with an efficient rather than impressive victory over the winless Central Pulse, before losing to the Magic 54-47 in Tauranga.
The Steel threatened to demolish the Tactix in the southern derby but a poor last quarter saw it limp to a four-goal win.
It was no match for the classy Vixens in Melbourne but bounced back with a convincing win over the Mystics and a gutsy effort against the Tactix.
So far, a B would seem the most appropriate mark. A good result for last year's squad but this side has a much more experienced look with Adine Wilson and Donna Wilkins joining the campaign.
A semifinal place is not only realistic, it is expected. A loss to the Magic will not spell the end of its play-off prospects, but a win against a marquee team will do it a world of good.
Its four wins have come against the Tactix, Mystics and Pulse, all struggling teams occupying the bottom three places on the competition table. And to be fair, most pundits would have pencilled in Steel wins before the first centre pass.
The Magic, though, is firmly entrenched as a serious contender. It has won six of its seven games and, with a talented playing roster including eight past or present Silver Ferns, is more than capable of going one better than last year and winning the title.
But it has been widely criticised after perceived lacklustre performances against the Mystics and Pulse, whereas the Steel has won its last two matches and has been steadily improving with every game. It upset the Magic in Invercargill last year and a win would leave it within reach of the semifinals.
The Steel is expected to beat the Pulse in round nine and the Mystics in round 11, and assuming it lost its match with the West Coast Fever in Perth on June 8, it would have won seven of its 10 matches.
Last year the Vixens and the Thunderbirds joined the Magic (20) and the Swifts (20) in the play-offs with 18 points for nine wins.
If this year's tournament follows the same pattern, the Steel would need to win two of its last three matches to earn a spot in the semis.
Unfortunately, those remaining games are all against Australian sides.
No New Zealand side has beaten an Australian side across the Tasman, so the Queensland Firebirds can be expected to win their round 12 clash with the Steel in Brisbane.
The Steel would then need to win its remaining home matches, against the Thunderbirds in Dunedin, on June 29, and the defending champions the Swifts in Invercargill, on July 4. Tough, but not impossible.
That scenario relies on the Steel building momentum after a good win against the Magic. If it loses it will have to win in Australia. Cue the Mission Impossible soundtrack.
