The proud southerner in me would love nothing better than to write about a Wingatui horse winning the Wellington Cup, writes Jonny Turner.
But the realist in me says that I may not get the chance to do that.
And it is certainly nothing to do with Wingatui galloper Patrick Erin not being good enough to win such an event. It has nothing to do with his trainers or jockey noy being good enough either.
What stands between Patrick Erin and Wellington Cup glory is weight. The horse looks extremely poorly off looking at the nominations for the race.
He sits on 99 rating points, two points behind second-top-rated horse, Maygrove.
That is despite Patrick Erin having won only one listed race compared to Maygrove having won two group 2 races, one group 3 race and two listed races. If it sounds bad already. It’s going to get much worse, so buckle yourself in for the ride.Both horses have won nine races each. Maygrove has won races which total $562,500 in stakes, while Patrick Erin has won races totalling $242,000.
From those races, Maygrove has been penalised 47 rating points and Patrick Erin has been penalised 45 points.
This makes no sense, at all. Relatively similar points for half the prize money?
But maybe a look at the open races will explain things. Maygrove has won five open handicap races — all at group and listed level and been penalised 19 points for them. Patrick Erin has won four open handicap races — one of which was at listed level — and has been penalised 17 points for those wins.
Again, too close together. But the plot gets deeper.
Patrick Erin was penalised six points for his win in the $30,000 Wyndham Cup. That could have been largely because he jumped from rating 75 grade to win the race, his first in open company.
Maygrove was penalised four points for his first open handicap win. It came in a little race called the group 2 Wellington Cup worth $200,000.
Those four points came after the horse had had one race in open company for a placing after racing in rating 85 grade.
So let’s look at the stages of their careers when each horse had won one open race.
Maygrove had a group 2 win to his name and a stack more prize money alongside four wins in rated company and was rated at 91 points. Patrick Erin had five wins in rated company and one open win in a race worth $170,000 less — with no listed or group status —- and was rated at 88 points.
Again, the three points between them seems ridiculously unfair.
If you have got this far, you might be thinking one of two things.
Patrick Erin has been punished for his consistency and has copped a lot of points for running placings. And Maygrove has run unplaced a lot of times to drop his rating.
Well, neither of those are true. Maygrove has been penalised 18 rating points for his eight career placings, while Patrick Erin has been penalised 11 points for his placings.
In 48 starts, Maygrove has run out of the top five 15 times and out of the top three 27 times. In 19 starts, Patrick Erin has only missed a top-three placing twice.
But from all of those unplaced runs Maygrove has only been downgraded nine points while Patrick Erin has lost two points in his lifetime.
I would have expected a bigger discrepancy here, which would account for why the pair are so close together in the ratings. If Maygrove had lost 20 or more points in his lifetime then it would explain how he could be rated close to a horse that has won much less money and fewer group races than him.
Looking closely at all of this information I can only surmise that the handicapping of South Island racing is drastically out of kilter. In fact, it is ridiculous.
And the most ironic thing about all of this?
The only group race the lower South Island has was almost taken away, because the horses competing in it were not up to standard.
Ironic, all right, because looking at their ratings, they would all win Wellington Cups!
Perhaps even more ironic is that through all of this we have not even discussed the biggest challenge of the rating system. Its impact on punter confidence.
Good luck trying to find a well placed horse this weekend.
Happy trails.
