Racing: Picking a Cup winner by the numbers

That time of year has arrived again when people throughout the country reach for the form guides and search frantically for clues to identify the Melbourne Cup winner.

The task is as hard as ever, with 24 horses accepted for the 150th running of the great race that causes everyone from school children to politicians to pause for just over three minutes while it is run over 3200 metres on the first Tuesday in November.

The once-a-year punters will put their money on their favourite, but will it have a realistic chance of success? Here's a few hints to that might help you make a dollar or two on the race.

The first step is to look at the saddlecloth numbers.

Since saddlecloths were first recorded in 1877, even numbers (69 wins) have the edge over odd numbers (64), and numbers 1-12 have won 84 Cups compared to 50 for numbers 13-24.

This year Zipping (4) and Harris Tweed (12) have the most successful saddlecloths with 11 wins each, while last year's Melbourne Cup winner, Shocking, will carry number one (10 wins).

Keep an eye on Hong Kong stayer Mr Medici, as he will carry number six; that has the best recent record, with six of its seven wins coming in past 50 years, and of them have come since 1989.

Bart Cummings will need to work some extra magic with Precedence, who is looking to become the first horse in more than century to win carrying number 20, the last being Gaulus in 1897.

English stayer Bauer gets no favours with 18 saddlecloth; it has been carried to victory just once, by Peter Pan 1932.

Tokai Trick (No.9, with five wins), Holberg (No. 19, with six) and Once Were Wild (No 23, with two) are saddlecloths on losing runs since 1957, 1942, and 1922 respectively.

Barrier draws

It's not all bad new for Once Were Wild: it has drawn barrier 11, which has been the starting position for the most Cup winners since barriers were allocated in 1924.

Caulfield Cup placegetter Monaco Consul starts from barrier 14, which has had six wins.

Barriers 11 and 14 are also the most successful barriers since starting stalls as we know them today were first used in 1958 with five wins each, but surprisingly in that time adjacent barriers 12 (Americain) and 15 (Precedence) have never won.

Out-of-form Master O'Reilly will be relying on at least one scratching to move him in from barrier 18, which is winless since 1924.

Names

History shows that Japan's Tokai Trick has the odds in his favour being the only runner with "T" as the first initial - that's been a feature of a record 16 Cup winners.

Mr Medici, Manighar, Master O'Reilly, Monaco Consul, and Maluckyday all have "M" as an initial, which has 12 Cup wins, as does the initial "P" (which this year is represented by Profound Beauty and Precedence)  and "S" (Shocking, So You Think and Shoot Out).

Illustrious Blue would be the first horse to win the Cup with the initial "I". Zipping and Zavite would be the second winner with the first initial "Z" and Once Were Wild would be the second "O".

Once Were Wild and So You Think are the only runners with three-word names in this year's Cup, but five winners have had that characteristic, all of them since 1976. The most recent was Might And Power in 1997.

Last year, Shocking became the 83rd winner with a one-word name, and there have been 61 winners with double-barrelled names.

Master O'Reilly is a chance to join Gurner's Lane (1982) and Let's Elope (1991) as the only Cup winners with an apostrophe in their names.

Profound Beauty and Master O'Reilly have 15 characters (including spaces), equal to the longest winning name shared by What A Nuisance (1985) and Might And Power ((1997). Illustrious Blue, with 16 characters, would be the longest named winner.

Horses with seven-character names (represented this year by Zipping and Holberg) have the best record with 31 Cups, while those with eight-character names (Shocking and Manighar) have had 22 wins.

Age

Four and five-year-olds have the best Cup record with 43 wins each, while Campanologist, Mr Medici, Americain and Red Ruler are chances to be the 29th six-year-old winner. 

Makybe Diva (2005) was the last of 10 seven-year-old winners, which is the age of Buccellati and Profound Beauty, while Master O'Reilly, Zavite and Bauer would join Toryboy (1865) and Catalogue (1938) as eight-year-old winners.

Zipping and Tokai Trick are both nine-year-olds and would be the oldest ever to win.

Sex

Males have dominated the Cup over females, with 133 wins to 16. Shocking was the 84th entire (including 19 colts) and Efficient the last of 49 geldings.

This year, Profound Beauty and Once Were Wild represent the mares, and the fairer sex has won seven Cups since 1988.

Colour

Bay coloured horses have the best record with 62 wins and, with 14 in this year's race, the chances favour them again. There are no brown (37 wins) or chestnut (34 wins) runners. Manighar, Linton, and Bauer would join five grey winners.

Weight

With no horses carrying 52.5kg or 53kg (eight wins each), Maluckyday is weighted to win with 51kg (seven wins).

Next best are Americain and Tokai Trick with 54.5kg (six wins), five times since 1976.

Looking to be just the sixth multiple Melbourne Cup winner after Archer (1861-62), Peter Pan (1932 and 1934), Rain Lover (1968-69), Think Big (1974-75) and Makybe Diva who won three (2003-05), last year's winner Shocking would also be just the third horse to win carrying 57kg.

Americain, Descarado, Maluckyday, Precedence and Linton all carry weight penalties which 42 Cup winners have done.

Home or abroad?

Three international raiders have won the Cup since 1993 and a record nine overseas-trained horses line up this year. Significantly 15 have placed in the first three in the last 12 Melbourne Cups, so don't dismiss them.

Silks

Campanologist, Zipping, Linton, Profound Beauty, and Holberg have an edge with jockeys wearing plain bodied silks, which have won 56 Cups, and Linton has extra good claims with his jockey wearing a red cap (30 wins) as does Zavite's rider.

The Bart Cummings factor

A winner of 12 Cups, Bart has the favourite So You Think this year, as well as Precedence, who is an omen bet if nothing else.

Favouritism

There have been 26 outright favourites and seven equal favourites win while the most successful odds are $9 and $11 with 12 and 14 wins respectively.

Only 16 winners have won at $31 or longer, most notably The Pearl (1870), Wotan (1936) and Old Rowley (1940) at $101.

 

Prediction: Monaco Consul ahead of So You Think, Mr Medici, and Tokai Trick.

 

 

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