Since the present playoffs format was introduced in 2020, the favourites have not always fared so well.
Southern finished fifth last season but battled their way through the playoffs and then upset Taieri 26-20 in the final.
The Eels had been unbeaten all season and that result will be fresh in their memory tomorrow when they play Southern again — this time in the semifinal.
Taieri has home advantage at Peter Johnstone Park. They have also had two wins against Southern this season.
They beat the Magpies 20-15 at Bathgate Park on June 24 and 26-10 in Mosgiel on May 6.
But form counted for nothing in last season’s final.
History can be a wobbly crutch in that sense, but the Eels can lean on their excellent defensive record and ability to build pressure through sensible, calculated rugby.
They did that against Green Island last weekend. The Grizzlies started well but paid the price for some ill-discipline.
They copped a series of yellow cards and Taieri went to work up front to post a 36-26 win.
Guys like Brodie Hume, Brady Robertson and Josh Hill pad out an underrated pack often labelled as workman-like. It is much better than that. Much better.
Taieri is not a flashy side, though. But they will start as favourites against Southern, who have had a patchy season.
The Magpies ground out a 19-10 win against Dunedin to reach the semis. Fullback MacKenzie Haugh made the difference with the boot.
He kicked four penalties and the up and under which led to the match-winning try which, of course, he scored.
Southern also defended strongly and that bodes well. They have got some players back from injury and shape as a genuine threat.
Kaikorai will host Dunedin at Bishopscourt in the other semifinal.
Dunedin clip its semifinal ticket courtesy of being the highest ranked loser, while Kaikorai blitzed Harbour 54-28 and has a set the benchmark this season.
The teams met two weeks ago and drew 23-23. That would suggest a tight contest. But Dunedin’s high error rate in the game against Southern, and Kaikorai’s form, indicates otherwise.
Kaikorai played with a lot of width against Harbour. Winger Mefiposeti Tupou was impressive and experienced first five Ben Miller was flawless with the boot and his passing game was at a similar level.
Whether Dunedin let Kaikorai play with that width will have a big impact on the game.
The Sharks got some traction up front against Southern and the scrum shapes as a phase it can profit from. They also scored plenty of points during the round-robin, so they know their way to the try line.
