It was 23 points last year - and that was the Highlanders, who earned a trip to the post-season despite winning just four of their 14 games, and only squeaked in on points difference, a whopping 12 points off seventh place.
The issue this year, as I have previously explained, is that the fight for the final spots is potentially more intense as the top five teams have long cleared out, leaving six teams with realistic hopes of fighting for three spots.
The Highlanders might need to win two of their three remaining games, or even all three, if they are to make the cut.
Let’s try to predict what is going to happen in the final rounds.
For the purposes of this exercise, we can ignore the top five teams in the competition (Chiefs, Brumbies, Hurricanes, Crusaders, Blues), as they are safe, and we can also discount winless Moana Pasifika.
This weekend
The Highlanders obviously need to beat the Rebels. Clarke Dermody has named a full-strength team, and you have to hope the comforts of home will count for something.
The Reds host the Blues in the colour derby. Their upset win over the Chiefs will have given the Reds a boost, and the Blues are resting several All Blacks. Going with the Aussies.
Can the Fijian Drua win away from home? Not against the Waratahs. Five points for the Tahs.
Expect the Brumbies, with a chance to qualify top, to pump the Force in Perth.
Rolling points (sixth to 11th): Waratahs 31, Reds 27, Highlanders 19, Force 18, Drua 17, Rebels 15.
Round 14
The round starts with two Friday night clashes that could be massive for the final playoff picture.
We will be generous and back the Highlanders to pip the Reds in Dunedin, while the Rebels should claim a narrow victory over the Force.
Fijian Drua fans will celebrate a big win over Moana Pasifika in Lautoka. The Waratahs will not win in Christchurch.
Rolling points (sixth to 11th): Waratahs 31, Reds 28, Highlanders 23, Drua 22, Force 19, Rebels 19.
Round 15
It all boils down to this.
Do the Highlanders beat the Blues at Eden Park? Unlikely.
Rebels over Brumbies in Canberra? Nup.
The Drua beating the Reds in Fiji? Probably.
Waratahs to smash Moana Pasifika in Sydney? Obviously.
Force-Chiefs in Perth tricky to pick? Yes. But if the Chiefs are firing, and need to win to secure No1 ranking, they win.
Final prediction
My calculations have the Waratahs (36) finishing sixth, the Drua seventh (26) and ... wait for it ... the Highlanders and the Reds finishing eighth equal on 23 points. The Force (20) and the Rebels (19) dip out.
If it pans out this way, the Reds will have six wins and the Highlanders five, so the Australian team will qualify for the playoffs.
