Taieri halfback Finn McDonald-Page clears the ball during a Dunedin division 1 match against University at Peter Johnstone Park this season. PHOTO: PETER MCINTOSH Kaikorai’s title prospects rest on whether they can win more lineouts and get their ball-runners into the game. Taieri will counter with quick ruck ball, a clinical set piece and home ground advantage. The other Dunedin division 1 semifinal is just as easy to read. Harbour will lean on their tight five to take control of the set pieces and Rique Miln’s kicking game to get the Hawks in the right part of the field. University will look to hold on to the ball for longer and build pressure on Harbour’s defence. And if halfback Kieran McClea gets quick ball and starts running, Harbour will be under even more pressure. But do not take our word for it. The team at Elevate Analysis have done all the heavy lifting for us this week. They have provided a detailed statistical breakdown of the semifinal match-ups. Here is the skinny. Kaikorai’s lineout crumbled in the quarterfinal loss to Harbour — the Hawks poached five steals — whereas Taieri’s set piece operated at 100% during the 24-14 win over Green Island. Across the whole season, Taieri’s lineout has been basically 10% more effective than Kaikorai’s. Mark that down as a clear advantage, although if Lachlan Stevens and Lucas Casey play for Kaikorai, the Demons’ lineout will be a lot more solid. The Eels clear the ruck faster than any other side in the competition. That catches teams napping. They also have not lost at Peter Johnstone Park all season. Defensively, both teams are sound. Kaikorai loosie Gregor Rutledge has a 97.8% tackle success rate, while Taieri pair Thomas Bolton (91.7%) and Harvey Amende (94.2%) are workhorses. Bolton (11 tries) is also the leading try-scorer in the competition. Kaikorai play a more attacking brand of rugby. If they can get the ball to the likes of Charlie Breen and Mefi Tupou, they will improve their prospects. Breen has beaten a competition-high 41 defenders and Tupou has left behind 31 would-be tacklers. The other key match-up is between first fives Ben Miller (Kaikorai) and Archie Body (Taieri) — the competition’s top two scorers. Body is in pole position by one point. Harbour’s engine room was exceptional against Kaikorai, but University will provide sterner opposition in that department. The Hawks have scored more than half their tries from the set piece, but University’s set piece has a season average success rate of 84.5%. University locking duo Mitchell Tinnock and Jonty Townsend are at the heart of a pack which includes Otago loose forward Will Stodart, who made 21 carries in the quarterfinal win. University play at a high tempo and hold on to the ball for long periods. McClea has eight tries and has beaten 17 defenders. He shapes as a major threat, and prop Charles Engelbrecht is one of the most reliable defenders in the competition. He has made 115 tackles at a success rate of 90.5%. Hooker Gabriel Francesconi, lock Preston Moananu and seasoned flanker Toni Taufa are the muscle behind the Harbour pack. Moananu teamed up with Charles Elton to destroy Kaikorai’s lineout last weekend. He has competition high 68 lineout wins. Francesconi has seven tries and nailed 15 of his 16 lineout throws in the quarterfinal, and Taufa is a consistent defender. Miln’s kicking game is critical for the Hawks. He kicks more than any other player in the competition and his big pack loves him for it. And now for that all-important prediction. Look away if you hate spoilers. The data from Elevate Analysis suggests Taieri and University will prevail. But our money is on Kaikorai and Harbour.
