Records might continue to tumble for beef prices but a potential ''price ceiling'' is emerging, ASB rural economist Nathan Penny says.
It was likely New Zealand would fill its United States quota earlier this year, meaning average export prices might fall or plateau as meat companies were forced to divert beef to other lower-paying markets over coming months.
Whether that translated into lower farm-gate prices was less clear, Mr Penny said in ASB's latest Farmshed Economics report.
Some meat companies might still have their share of quota in hand. As a result, robust local competition for beef is likely to keep prices strong, he said.
''Either way, beef prices are likely to stay high over the coming months, although the current stratospheric prices may give way to merely sky-high ones,'' he said.
Farm consultant Bob Thomson, of AgFirst, said mating more dairy cows to beef sires and rearing more dairy-beef calves were attractive options for some dairy farmers seeking ways to supplement their income.
The beef industry relied heavily on the dairy industry for beef finishing cattle and more collaboration was needed across the industries, he believed.
''The dairy industry has grown at the expense of beef. In the last 10 years, the number of dairy cattle has grown by 31%, from 5.15million in 2004 to 6.7million in 2014.
''Over the same period, there was an 18% drop in the number of beef cattle. There are now 5million dairy cows but only 1million beef cows,'' he said.
Beef and Lamb New Zealand Genetics was very aware of the need for greater clarity concerning the breeding values of beef sires for both dairy and beef farmers and was investing in a dairy-beef programme which was comparing established and young beef sires to promote greater awareness of the attributes needed by the dairy and beef industries, he said.
