Confidence fall down to timing

John Scandrett.
John Scandrett.
A tight 10-day period of turmoil in both New Zealand and international markets is the likely culprit for a reported fall in employment confidence, Otago-Southland Employers Association chief executive John Scandrett says.

The Westpac-McDermott Miller employment confidence index fell to 96.2 points in the June quarter, down from 98.9 in March.

In the period, Otago slipped to 95.3 from 99.9 in March. Southland rose to 99.2 from 97.1 in March and Canterbury fell to 97.6 from 105.2.

"As we know, timing is often everything, and my take on the reported employment confidence slippage is linked to the fact that this survey was conducted through a tight 10-day period when we saw quite negative sentiment emerging on both local and international fronts," Mr Scandrett said.

The pending Greek election raised further concerns for many in the euro zone and consequently for export-oriented sectors in New Zealand.

There were some new figures on how many Kiwis were continuing to see the perceived benefit of moving across the Tasman and there was wider comment on the recognition of slow progress on rebuilding in Christchurch.

In Otago and Southland, there was some buoyancy around the strength of manufacturing but that appeared to be based on inventory-build rather than on product sales results, he said.

"For anyone in the community, these signals paint a reasonably glum backdrop and they serve to present the proposition that the stall in economic growth is indeed happening."

It followed that employees would naturally, in such circumstances, adopt a level of discomfort, Mr Scandrett said.

The association's last regional services sector and manufacturing activity reports supported the recent dip seen in employee confidence. But once again, seasonal influences were playing a role, he said.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said employment confidence had fallen for four quarters in a row, taking it back to levels last seen near the end of the 2008-09 recession.

Households had been downbeat about employment conditions in the wider economy for several years but now, their expectations for their own job security and earnings being eroded was being increasingly seen.

"The clear message from today's survey is that a growing economy isn't yet translating into an improving labour market."

Unemployment edged back up in the March quarter and the survey suggested it had stayed high during the past three months, he said.

The survey was conducted between June 1 and 10 with a sample size of 1570.

Public-sector employees remained much more pessimistic than private-sector employees.

The public-sector confidence index fell a further 3.8% in June to 89.7, the lowest value since public-sector confidence was first measured in 2006.

In contrast, private-sector employees remained slightly optimistic at 100.5 but their confidence was down 1.1 points to the lowest level recorded since June 2009.

 Employment confidence
   March  June
 Otago  99.9  95.3
 Southland  97.1  99.2
 Canterbury  105.2  97.6
 New Zealand  98.9  96.2
 Public Sector
 93.5  89.7
 Private Sector
 101.6  100.5

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