The single biggest item in the Budget was support for frontline health services, up an extra $5.8 billion over the Budget period.
The extra funding came as no surprise for Prof Robin Gauld, executive dean of Bond Business School, who has been following the New Zealand health system closely over the past decade.
‘‘That $5.8b is spread out over the years to 2030. So I was just looking at this and calculating it. What it means is that the compound average annual growth rate, the CAGR as you call it ... is actually 3.49% per annum through to 2030.
‘‘They claim that there’s a big investment going on, but actually it barely meets inflation rates.’’
Prof Gauld said the Budget was ‘‘playing it very risky’’ by making some rather heroic assumptions about the changing economic climate.
‘‘If inflation comes down, of course, you’re doing better, but health always increases more than the cost of inflation.
‘‘So many of those costs are outside of everyone’s control.
‘‘It’s technology, it’s equipment and so forth, it’s construction costs. There are all sorts of costs. The cost of locums, it’s probably hard to argue the price of that down.’’
Recently, the Otago Daily Times revealed the volume of cancelled individual patient referrals in the Southern district and nationwide was creating an ‘‘invisible waiting list’’ almost as long as the actual one.
Prof Gauld, who is an honorary dean at the Otago Medical School, said there was nothing in the Budget to strategically address this ‘‘unmet need’’.
‘‘I still think we have a dire need for investment in workforce. We didn’t see anything in that Budget about workforce.
‘‘The health workforce is under severe strain and that’s impacting on patients’ ability to get a specialist assessment, to go on to receive treatment in the public hospital system.’’
Meanwhile, the government has announced lowering the free bowel cancer screening age from 58 to 56.
Cancer Society head of public affairs Rachael Neumann welcomed the announcement, but had some caveats.
‘‘New Zealand has one of the highest bowel cancer rates in the world, so every step towards earlier detection matters. We welcome the Budget’s extension of free bowel screening to age 56 — there is no doubt it will save lives.
‘‘But we need to go further and faster. The Cancer Society has long called for screening to begin at 50 and extend to 74. Caught early, nearly 90% of people survive bowel cancer. Caught late, that drops to just 10% to 15%.
‘‘New Zealand cannot treat its way out of cancer. The case for investing in earlier detection is clear, affordable and urgent — and we will keep making it until the job is done.’’
Health Minister Simeon Brown trumpeted the Budget as being the biggest spender on health in history.
‘‘Budget 2026 reflects the government’s continued focus on fixing the basics and building the future of our healthcare system with patients at the centre.’’
