Kaikorai Valley College principal Philip Craigie said he expected the job market to tighten in Dunedin due to the financial climate and the employment opportunities for secondary pupils will be fewer.
He believed more pupils would choose to stay at school and study rather than look for work. There are between 120 and 130 pupils in year 12 - the year at which secondary pupils turn 16 and are eligible to leave school.
"Of those, we usually lose about 20 who find employment and leave during the year. I would expect only 10 to leave next year, but that's a best guess."
Logan Park High School principal Jane Johnson said her junior roll remained stable but expected the number of year 12 and 13 pupils returning to school next year to increase about 15%.
The school usually had about 140 year 12 pupils and 115 year 13 pupils.
However, Ms Johnson predicted the number of year 12 pupils to increase to more than 160 and the number of year 13 pupils to increase to more than 130 at the start of next year.
"This time last year, I wouldn't have had these figures. We're quite staggered by the numbers. It suggests kids are nervous about moving on to work. They are staying on at school while there is uncertainty about the workforce."
Mr Craigie said educating pupils who were "disaffected" and did not want to be at school was difficult, but many of them realised that gaining extra qualifications gave them choices they might not otherwise have had.
"We're striving all the time to promote opportunities. We push the fact that you've got to have qualifications to have choices about where you work in the workplace."
Secondary schools were much better equipped these days to give pupils experience of work life through programmes such as Gateway, he said.
"It gives them more opportunities to see what kind of work they might want to get into. Schools can now give pupils experience in the world of work."
Ms Johnson agreed the tightening employment market was good for education, but was concerned about those pupils who would still leave school early to do tertiary courses.
"If a pupil leaves school with NCEA level 1, they might have to do preliminary courses to qualify for the course they really want to do. They are having to pay an extra year's fees.
"If they stay at school, it may only cost them about $70 to get level 2 or 3 NCEA and then they can go straight into the course they want. It could save them from adding about $5000 to their student loan."
Overall enrolments at the University of Otago are also expected to increase next year by 223 people due to the tightening job market and more people opting for study over employment.
Otago Polytechnic pre-enrolment applications are also up 25% on the same time last year, but chief executive officer Phil Ker said it was too early to say if they would translate into enrolments.
