Universities New Zealand doubts the Government's fees-free scheme will have much effect on tertiary enrolments even in the next decade - but Otago says it is still too soon to evaluate its effects.
This week Universities New Zealand reported the fees-free policy appeared to have had little impact on student numbers across the country.
There was a rise in enrolments of only 0.3 % this April compared with the corresponding time last year.
The policy has been dubbed a multibillion-dollar failure by National tertiary education spokeswoman Paula Bennett.
''The Government must concede its $2.8billion fees-free policy has been a resounding failure with just 0.3% more students at university well short of the Government's expected 15% increase,'' Ms Bennett said earlier this week.
''There was never any evidence that cost was a significant barrier to entry for most students, yet this was the justification Labour gave for spending $2.8billion on making university free for students.
''In what is typical of this Government, it did no cost-benefit analysis of the policy nor did it listen to experts, and that's come back to bite it ...''
University of Otago planning and funding director David Thomson said if fees-free was to have ''a noticeable impact'' it would be seen in 2019.
He was ''cautious'' about speculating about its future effects.
This year the university had its biggest roll increase since 2010, when enrolments rose by 300 students.
Mr Thomson said changes in enrolment were always due to a ''complex interplay of factors'' but it appeared fees-free and other new initiatives had helped.
''Our best reading of the situation is that additional Government funding support for students - which comprise not only fees-free but also increases to student allowances and student loans - has contributed to our growth this year, but that it has not been the major contributor,'' he said.
An Otago Polytechnic spokesman said evidence to date had not shown a significant increase in students due to fees-free.
A forecast from Education Counts, released in May, predicted enrolments at universities, polytechnics, wananga and private training organisations would drop to pre-2013 levels next year, as fewer than 200,000 people were expected to embark on tertiary study. It did not take into account the effect of the fees-free policy.
Mr Thomson said so far interest from prospective Otago students for 2019 was high.
Dunedin Secondary Schools Partnership director Gavin Kidd believed the effect of fees-free would not really become apparent to school principals for a few months, and National Union of Students Associations' president Jonathan Gee also said it was impossible to evaluate the policy yet.
Education Minister Chris Hipkins is due to brief Cabinet this month on fees-free uptake numbers.
