The biggest movement has been in support for the smaller parties with New Zealand First down three points to 6 percent and the Greens up two points to 7 percent.
The results are markedly different from Newshub's Reid Research poll on Tuesday this week, which had National ahead on 47.3 percent (up four points in ) and Labour on 37.8 percent (down 1.6) and the Greens out of Parliament altogether. New Zealand First was on 6 percent.
But few believed that National had taken such a big lead and most party insiders thought the contest was much closer.
The significance of tonight's 1 News poll is that New Zealand First does not have the "kingmaker" role that it has held in most polls this term.
The full 1 News Colmar Brunton results:
- Labour 44 (up 1)
- National 40 (up 1)
- Greens 7 (up 2)
- NZ First 6 (down 3)
- The Opportunities Party 2 (no change)
- Maori Party 1 (down 1)
- Act 0.6 (no change)
If the poll were translated to seats in the House Labour's 55 and the Green Party's 8 would allow it form a majority coalition Government, without needing New Zealand First.
National with 48 seats and New Zealand First's seven, would not be able to form a Government, even with the Maori Party's one and Act's 1.
Jacinda Ardern is ahead of Bill English in the preferred Prime Minister stakes on 34 percent (down 1), with English on 32 percent (up one). New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is steady on five percent.
In the first Colmar Brunton poll after Jacinda Ardern took over the Labour leadership, Labour had climbed to 37 percent against National's 44 percent.
By the second poll, in late August, Labour was ahead of National by 43 percent to 41 percent.
Last week's had Labour steady on 43 per cent and National slipping to 39 per cent.
