Did Labour catch National's strategists napping?

Phil Goff
Phil Goff
How on earth did that happen? If they haven't already conducted a postmortem, National's strategists might well ask themselves how Labour managed to set the political agenda so easily this week on the crucial question of how to preserve jobs in the current economic recession.

The Government insists it wasn't caught napping. If that is the case, it still gave a pretty good impression of being caught off-guard by Phil Goff's offensive.

The Government also insists it is relaxed about the Labour leader focusing on the jobs question. If so, why was there such a scramble to gather information showing it is still full-steam ahead when it comes to finding fresh initiatives to help people keep their jobs, or find new ones if they're made redundant?

Perhaps for the first time since becoming Labour's leader, Mr Goff utilised all his skills as a politician on something of real substance.

Still flush with Labour's triumph in Mt Albert, he stayed relentlessly on message this week as he sought to expose the widening gap between the rising tide of joblessness and the seemingly diminishing returns in the way of job-saving initiatives in the aftermath of February's Jobs Summit.

Mr Goff hoisted himself up the news bulletins and then sustained the attack in Parliament over the following days in what one Labour staffer described as a battle between the intangible and the tangible.

While National was talking about what might happen, Labour was talking about what was happening.

To that end, Mr Goff repeatedly quoted the telling statistic that about 1000 New Zealanders are joining the dole queues each week.

National countered by saying initiatives such as Government-funded infrastructure projects coming on stream would create "thousands" of jobs.

However, the Government's ability to rebut Mr Goff is handicapped by the difficulty of measuring exactly how many jobs are being or will be saved or created by its actions.

National also sought to parry Mr Goff's onslaught by mentioning other countries, such as Britain and the United States, where the unemployment rate is 7.2% and 9.4% respectively. New Zealand's is 5%.

Labour's response was to ask how highlighting what was happening elsewhere helped workers here.

Much the same point was made in a different way by Finance Minister Bill English, who told Parliament most people's measure of a recession was not changes in gross domestic product. It was whether they still had a job.

Therein lies the potency of Mr Goff's attack. It is all about personal security. He is not only wishing to be seen to be batting for those who have lost their jobs. His target includes a much bigger group - those who fear they too will be made redundant.

Mr Goff is pitching to those living in low to middle-income city suburbs and provincial towns, who deserted Labour at last year's election.

The same pitch underlies David Cunliffe's campaign against profit-gouging by foreign-owned banks, and the Labour finance spokesman's push for an inquiry by Parliament's finance and expenditure committee.

Hammering away on jobs and the banks lets Labour reopen debate about economic management as a whole.

Polling, however, suggests the majority of voters are still ticking National's box when it comes to determining which major party is best at running the economy.

Senior ministers do not believe National will be punished for rising unemployment because voters will see it is largely beyond its control, and understand there are no easy solutions.

That is one reason ministers think Mr Goff's attempt to create a climate of fear will fall flat. The other is that Labour's attack is not backed up by solid policy suggesting it would do things differently.

There is acknowledgment of a post-Budget hiatus. If that has created an impression that the sense of urgency apparent in the wake of the Jobs Summit has evaporated, that is misplaced.

Further employment initiatives are in the pipeline. They will be released progressively, in line with a "rolling maul" strategy of announcing new policies one-by-one rather than using a "big bang" approach.

The rolling maul ensures the Government gets more publicity bang for its buck.

The staged releases are also designed to show policy development is ongoing, with each step consistent with what has gone before. The down side is that it could look like National is taking a piecemeal approach to what is a very large problem with a human face.

National, however, believes it has a good story to tell in its handling of the recession.

It averted a credit downgrade. It has prevented income and other entitlements from being reduced. National thinks the Budget was widely acclaimed because its preservation of spending on public services demonstrated Mr Key was a moderate conservative and not some right-wing reformer.

In that regard, the Budget is seen as crucial component in National retaining the trust of the electorate.

At the same time, there is acceptance that for the next 12 to 18 months rising unemployment will start to whittle away some of the strong public support the Government is currently getting - and that Mr Goff will be doing his utmost to accelerate the trend by whatever means he can find.

However, having basically followed the economic recipes and recession-busting policies proscribed by the likes of the OECD and the G20 grouping of nations, the Government simply has to keep its fingers crossed that things will start to slowly, but steadily, improve.

As Mr English also told Parliament this week, the economic cycle moves more slowly than the news cycle.

He and his colleagues can be hostage to one cycle, but not both.

The current Government is confident that what it is doing will win it enough kudos in the wider electorate, without it having to constantly feed the short attention span of the news media just to keep its major Opposition rival shut out.

- John Armstrong is The New Zealand Herald's political correspondent.

 

Add a Comment