South Dunedin needs a long-term adaptation plan.
We cannot ignore our flood risk or the need to prepare for the future.
The South Dunedin Futures programme represents years of sophisticated, evidence-based work and it deserves recognition.
It tackles problems decades in the making and has the potential to become a blueprint for how New Zealand responds to climate adaptation.
Doing nothing is not an option.
But even the best planning can be undermined if people lose confidence in the process.
As the local MP, I attended last week’s briefing ahead of the public release.
I specifically urged the council to be explicit about the relationship between the long-term adaptation options and the immediate Surrey St flood resilience project.
Residents have fought hard for those upgrades.
They deserved absolute certainty this work remains an urgent priority, not something quietly eclipsed by planning for decades ahead.
Instead, we left without clear answers about the apparent underspend on the Surrey St project or firm assurances about its delivery.
It’s no surprise those impacted by regular sewerage events and the risk of condemnation of their homes via contamination remain cynical and upset.
Surrey St residents were contacted ahead of the public announcement, as they should have been, but they were not the only people directly affected by these proposals.
Thousands of other residents whose properties are identified within the long-term adaptation scenarios appear not to have received the same direct communication before details became public.
Media reports refer to an internal council list of residents who were expected to be contacted before the announcement.
If that is correct, the obvious question is why so many people identified on that list were not spoken to first. That should never have happened.
To be clear, the consultation is not proposing that homes will be compulsorily acquired tomorrow.
Any future property acquisition, if ultimately recommended after consultation and authorised under existing legislation, would occur over many years as part of a long-term adaptation programme.
That is precisely why communication matters.
When people discover through the media that their home falls within an area where future property acquisition is one possible option, they deserve to hear that with the time and context needed to explain what it does — and does not — mean.
Residents also deserve greater clarity about what these proposals would achieve.
There has understandably been considerable focus on property acquisition, but far less discussion about the benefits.
How much would these options reduce flood risk? How would they complement the immediate flood resilience work already planned? And what happens if the preferred options prove unaffordable?
Part of being honest with South Dunedin is acknowledging that the price tags on all the options are exorbitant and the final outcome for them may look very different if funding constraints mean aspects of the options cannot be delivered.
Communities deserve to understand not only the preferred scenarios, but also the realistic alternatives if those scenarios cannot be achieved.
South Dunedin is not simply a Dunedin City Council problem.
It is one of New Zealand’s most significant climate adaptation challenges.
Councils can identify risks, commission engineering advice, consult communities and develop plans.
They cannot reasonably be expected to carry challenges of this scale on their alone.
Before the 2023 election, work was well advanced on a proposal to Treasury’s National Resilience Plan seeking $132.5 million to begin implementing adaptation measures in South Dunedin.
Labour in its climate manifesto also committed to working with councils facing significant resilience challenges to implement adaptation plans, and South Dunedin was explicitly mentioned.
Then came the October 2024 floods and a change of government.
When Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visited Dunedin, he acknowledged he had not been aware the South Dunedin proposal existed.
Shortly afterwards, Treasury declined it.
If one of New Zealand’s most vulnerable communities can spend years developing a nationally significant adaptation proposal only for it to receive so little attention at the highest levels, serious questions must be asked about whether climate adaptation is receiving the priority it deserves.
Climate change is increasing flood risk, sea-level rise is a reality we must plan for and South Dunedin’s water table reflects its history as a wetland.
But South Dunedin’s vulnerability also reflects historical planning decisions, ageing infrastructure and decades of underinvestment.
Residents have consistently asked for practical improvements such as better stormwater infrastructure and upgraded pipes.
The official narrative should be honest about the legacy of infrastructure decisions rather than dressing the whole story as one of climate change.
After all, these residents did not ask to become the national test case for managed retreat.
Just last week the council finally broadened the official climate adaptation conversation beyond South Dunedin to other vulnerable parts of the city.
That is welcome, but it also prompts an uncomfortable question. Why did it take so long?
Flooding, coastal erosion and land instability do not stop at suburb boundaries.
We should reflect honestly on whether South Dunedin has carried a disproportionate share of this conversation either because it was demanded after the 2016 floods and seen as the obvious place to start — or perhaps because the socio-economics of being south side made it an easier prospect for managed retreat.
Regardless, for nearly six years I have argued that South Dunedin should become New Zealand’s blueprint for climate adaptation through genuine partnership between local and central government, with the community firmly at the centre.
Getting this right means more than good engineering.
It means earning trust.
The people of South Dunedin have shown we are prepared to confront difficult realities.
We deserve the same honesty, partnership and courage from those making decisions about our future — both here and in Wellington.
• Ingrid Leary is the Labour MP for Taieri.
