This year’s Budget - Nicola Willis’ third, and perhaps final depending on how things go in November - was titled ‘‘Securing New Zealand’s Future’’ and promoted by Ms Willis as a ‘‘responsible Budget’’.
I noticed an echo. Last year’s speech began: ‘‘This is a responsible Budget to secure New Zealand’s future.’’
To its credit, the coalition government resisted the temptation of sprinkling election-year fairy dust to improve its chances of a second term.
Nonetheless, Ms Willis managed to pull a rabbit from the fiscal hat.
The headline is a forecast return to surplus - where government revenue exceeds spending - in 2028-29: one year earlier than previously expected, and the first surplus in a decade.
A surplus would be a great achievement if it eventuates. Financing government debt, accumulated through years of deficits, is costing taxpayers $9 billion a year in interest alone - $1700 for every New Zealander.
But, as a friend crowed when I got married in the 1990s, such rosy anticipations often prove to be triumphs of hope over experience.
In her first Budget two years ago, Ms Willis predicted a surplus for the coming 2027-28 year.
Then reality intervened. Global shocks, including wars in the Middle East, got in the way.
Also, New Zealand’s economy continues to be among the worst-performing in the developed world. Inevitably, many people are doing it tough.
The fundamental challenge facing the government - and one it has, in my view, now dodged in all three Budgets - is how to reverse New Zealand’s long decline in living standards. This may once again be a ‘‘responsible’’ Budget, but it is not a reforming one.
New Zealand’s poor economic performance is a serious ongoing problem that needs to be addressed.
Fifteen years ago, former National leader and future Act New Zealand leader Don Brash warned that unless New Zealand improved its performance, parents should start saving for trips to Australia to visit their children and grandchildren.
With this being an election year, the question voters should be asking those who want to lead the country is: what is your plan to turn things around and raise New Zealanders’ standard of living?
• Paul Hansen is an emeritus professor, department of economics, University of Otago.
