The top three-ranked teams, the Hurricanes (40 points), the Blues (38 points) and the Chiefs (36 points), have about a 1% chance of missing out on the playoffs, but you would break your calculator trying to figure out how they could choke from here. Moana Pasifika are out of contention and the Western Force’s season is hanging by a thread. One tug and the whole thing unravels.
Here is the part that really hurts. If you run the numbers through an AI programme, the Force actually have a better shot of reaching the playoffs than the Highlanders.
Realistically, only five sides are competing for the last three playoff spots, but we have included the Highlanders and the Force in this analysis because, well, we live in hope.
HIGHLANDERS
Position: Ninth (20 points) — highest possible tally 35
Remaining games: Waratahs, Chiefs, Hurricanes
The oil: The brutal truth is the ghastly loss to the Fijian Drua last weekend effectively snuffed out their chances.
But nothing is that simple when nerds and calculators join forces and manufacture some hope.
Entry to the playoffs will involve a winning streak and a run of other helpful results.
The Highlanders can reach a maximum of 35 points, but that would require bonus-point wins against the Waratahs in Dunedin tomorrow and the Chiefs and the Hurricanes on the road. That seems as likely as Winston Peters finding common ground with David Seymour.
They might not need that many points or wins, depending on other results. But even if the Highlanders can defy the odds and bank all 15 points still available to them, the Reds (27 points), Crusaders (27 points) and the Brumbies (25 points) could still move out of reach.
The Brumbies have a very gentle run into the playoffs. The Reds have got a game in hand. And the Crusaders, who have the hardest possible run into the playoffs, have a large collection of bonus points, which will partly insulate them from a late burst from the Highlanders and the rest of the chasing pack.
If the Highlanders can stage a late rally, they will need to lift their points differential of -55, which is worse than the Western Force (-23), the Waratahs (-46), the Brumbies (+7), the Crusaders (+47) and the Reds (-30).
The Fijian Drua (-103) have the second-worst differential in the competition but one more win than the Highlanders or the Waratahs, and total wins are the first tiebreaker.
It is not looking good, folks.
Computer says: ‘‘Mathematically alive, realistically desperate’’ — a pretty savage burn from the algorithm.
REDS
Position: Fourth (27 points) — highest possible tally 47
Remaining games: Chiefs, Force, Moana Pasifika, Fijian Drua
The oil: They have some very winnable games ahead. Go ahead and ink them in. They are a pretty safe bet.
Computer says: ‘‘They have real scope to bank points and climb the competition standings.’’
CRUSADERS
Position: Fifth (27 points) — highest possible tally 42
Remaining games: Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes
The oil: It is the hardest possible run home. They will be nervous in Christchurch, but realistically, the defending champions probably only need a bonus point or two to get into safe territory.
Computer says: ‘‘Their seven bonus points this season show they scrap hard even in losses.’’
BRUMBIES
Position: Sixth (25 points) — highest possible tally 40
Remaining games: Force, Waratahs, Moana Pasifika
The oil: The Brumbies can probably bank on beating Moana Pasifika at home, but their away game against the Waratahs a week earlier could determine their playoff fate.
Computer says: ‘‘They hold their fate in their own hands with a soft draw.’’
FIJIAN DRUA
Position: Seventh (20 points) — highest possible tally 35
Remaining games: Waratahs, Force, Reds
The oil: Two of those three games are away from home and they are not the same team outside Fiji.
Computer says: ‘‘Their zero bonus-point total is a massive problem.’’
WARATAHS
Position: Eighth (20 points) — highest possible tally 40
Remaining games: Highlanders, Fijian Drua, Brumbies, Force
The oil: Important game against the Highlanders in Dunedin tomorrow. They have a game in hand, which could prove critical.
Computer says: ‘‘Their schedule is genuinely very winnable.’’
FORCE
Position: 10th (18 points) — highest possible tally 38
Remaining games: Brumbies, Reds, Fijian Drua, Waratahs
The oil: They finish the season with three home games, but have a lot of ground to make up.
Computer says: ‘‘The most dangerous dark horse.’’
