Three reasons why the ABs will win/lose

The All Blacks congratulate George Bridge during their comprehensive win over Ireland in Tokyo....
The All Blacks congratulate George Bridge during their comprehensive win over Ireland in Tokyo. Photo: Reuters
The big game kicks off at 9pm tonight. Rugby writer Steve Hepburn looks at why (and why not) the men in black will come away the winners.

Three reasons the All Blacks will win.-

Better players

Our lads have played the Poms 41 times over the years and won 33. The game ain't won in the history books. But it does show one thing - we're just better.

Better in 1905, better in 1964, better in 1995 and better three times in a row in 2014.

With a week between games and a 24-hour news cycle there is plenty of time to talk. But it still comes down to how good you are on the field. And on the grass, we're just better than them.

Been there, done that

The All Blacks are expected to win and if they don't there will be a huge letdown. The players are vastly experienced and know how to remain cool when the pressure comes on. The side is used to playing top teams every week. There is no Italy or a half-fit Scotland to face up to.

England has not been at this stage for 12 years. Long time between drinks.

Also do not forget 1995, the last time the two sides met at semifinal time. Anyone remember what happened?

Humans taking on robots

It has become a game of chess in some ways and the English love to talk about the set piece and the structure. But the All Black do not play the game by the textbook. They can cut it up from any part of the field - that can make the difference in close games. The side can tear other teams to shreds as it did to Ireland last week. The English play the game so patterned, it is like watching a robotics class in action.

Three reasons the All Blacks won't win.-

Human frailties

The men in black comprise 23 humans. Humans make mistakes. Bad things happen when they should not. Divine intervention or a bad day at the office? Think Cardiff, 2007 or Perth, 2019. It shouldn't happen but it can.

Weather

Who knows what is going to happen with this Japanese weather? But if it is raining - it is not supposed to - then it could become a lottery. Playing in poor weather just evens things up so much. It becomes more about defence and things turn into a real slog. Moving the ball becomes impossible and sides with big bodies and not a lot of enterprise come right back into the contest. Who would that be then?

Goal kicking

Owen Farrell has kicked some clutch goals in his career. Richie Mo'unga has ice in his veins. So who is going to blink first? If the defence starts to get on top, it may then become a game dominated by the boot. One hopes it does not come down to penalties. But it could and Farrell is a man who loves kicking goals.

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