The next government will inherit a budget surplus of close to $4 billion, the Treasury has revealed in its pre-election update.
It is forecasting the current financial year, which ended in June, will yield a higher than expected surplus of $3.7billion when the final accounts come out in October - more than enough for campaign promises.
Finance Minister Steven Joyce said National would commit to implementing a further family incomes package in the next term of government, provided some fiscal conditions were met.
Those conditions looked likely to be met, following operating balance excluding gains and losses (obegal) details released yesterday.
The $3.7 billion figure was more than double the $1.6 billion forecast in May's Budget 2017.
Obegals for the next few years were $2.9 billion in 2018, $3.5 billion in 2019, $5.7 billion in 2020 and $6.4 billion in 2021.
ASB economist Nathan Penny said heading into the September 23 election, the Government books remained ''very healthy''.
Surpluses were forecast to grow and the Government's net debt position fell steadily over the forecast horizon.
The first families income package came into effect on April 1 next year and would give an average of $26 million to 1.34 million working families through a combination of tax threshold changes, increases in working for families tax credits and increases in the accommodation supplement.
The package also provided and additional $13 a week per couple for 750,000 superannuitants.
Mr Joyce said for the second package to be implemented, the Government had to maintain its targets of reducing net debt to 20% of GDP by 2020 and 10% to 15% of GDP by 2025.
The Government also had to meet its spending commitments and forecasts for building infrastructure and improving public services laid out in Budget 2017.
Funding of any families income packages must come from cash surpluses not from additional borrowings, he said.
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the changes in the Crown accounts compared with the Budget looked to be ''margin of excellence'' tweaks.
The operating surplus rose to 2.3% of GDP, compared with 2.4% previously forecast. Net debt fell to 18.8% of GDP compared with 19.3%.
''The lolly jar looks pretty full on two levels.
''New initiative allowances are baked into the forecasts and projected rising surpluses and a declining profile for debt provides another layer of choice.''
He warned there was ''not huge wiggle room though''.
''We've seen projected surpluses disappear fast when the business cycle turns and statistically we are due for such a turn within the Treasury's forecast horizon.
The Treasury forecast unemployment to drop to 4.3% by June 2020, providing stronger nominal and real wage growth.
Labour finance spokesman Grant Robertson took a negative view of the optimistic forecasts included in the Crown accounts.
They showed a National Party drifting along as economic growth stalled and productivity stayed flat.
Growth in the economy was being propped up by rapid population increases and Kiwis working longer hours.
''This is not sustainable. We can do better than this.
''We need a government that does more than drift along - one which has the drive to lift productivity and wages.''
