On Friday the Prime Minister will be in Christchurch to speak at the South Island Election Conference. And who might the Prime Minister be? We’ll come back to you on that one. Waking up today as PM is Christopher Luxon, but having called a snap, in-person caucus vote this morning on his leadership of the National Party, there is no guarantee that he will be the PM when it comes time to turn down the duvet and plump the pillows at Premier House. Mr Luxon has been in this quandary before: in April he called a similar confidence vote, from which he emerged victorious — but refused to disclose his margin of victory or take questions, none of which made it appear that he had cowed malcontent ministers and bolshie backbenchers into submission. The murmurings of disquiet did not go away and they reached a new crescendo last week after Mr Luxon fumbled and bumbled through several political mishaps — including having to apologise to a chamber of commerce for not backing business enough, an unforgivable act so far as the National Party is concerned. Actually, National’s polling is better now than it was in April: the most recent divinations suggest Mr Luxon’s coalition government could rule again following November 7’s election. But the underlying personal performance issues which were at the heart of the April mutiny against Mr Luxon have not gone away, and if last week was anything to go by they have got worse. There is never a good time to roll a sitting Prime Minister — and if you had to pick a time, just before an election would not be one’s preferred option. But the political future of several National MPs, let alone the government they are a part of, is dependent on their party finding a further 3%-5% in the party vote. Seemingly enough of them have summoned the courage they lacked in April and decided to tackle Mr Luxon head-on. However, if National’s MPs lack the intestinal fortitude to place the pillow over their leader’s head, he surely cannot campaign for the next three months answering questions about caucus loyalty to him. That is self-evidently in short supply and surely no-one, including the habitually blithely effervescent Mr Luxon, can believe otherwise. Which is better for National? A lame duck leader — for that assuredly is the territory Mr Luxon is flapping his feathers toward — or a newly fledged but untested leader who will need to soothe New Zealand First leader Winston Peters’ ruffled plumage for a few more weeks? Both are bad options, and picking the least worst of those two poison chalices is the unhappy task National faces today. mike.houlahan@odt.co.nz Signing cancelled National’s caucus meeting has forced the cancellation of Wednesday’s long-awaited Otago Central Lakes regional deal signing in Queenstown. The deal was to be signed by local leaders and ministers Chris Bishop and Simon Watts, with hopes it would help address key infrastructure issues in the district. Queenstown Lakes District Mayor John Glover said he understood the political need for the ministers to be in Wellington but was disappointed, saying the region would now have to wait for the political “dust to settle” before regrouping.
