Labour may have only three MPs south of Christchurch after the election, judging from the party list released yesterday.
Dunedin North MP Pete Hodgson and Energy Minister and list MP David Parker, ranked six and 17 respectively, are assured of returning to Parliament.
Dunedin South candidate Clare Curran, who successfully challenged sitting MP David Benson-Pope for the nomination, is ranked 45 and will probably need to win her seat to enter Parliament.
List MP Lesley Soper, from Invercargill, has been ranked 44 on the list. Labour has tried to ensure she was not elected at past elections but retirements during the last session meant she returned to Parliament for a second time.
Labour will need to get about 38% of the party vote for Ms Soper to return, as three candidates ranked below her are in winnable seats. Apart from Ms Curran, Grant Robertson should win Wellington Central and Iain Lees-Galloway is likely to replace retiring MP Steve Maharey in Palmerston North.
Labour recorded support of 34% and 35% in two polls taken last month.
Clutha-Southland candidate Don Pryde is at 55 on the list.
Messrs Hodgson and Parker have improved on their placings at the last election, with Mr Hodgson moving up six places and Mr Parker 20 places.
In an expected move, Labour promoted eight new faces above sitting MPs.
There are younger people and racially diverse faces in the mix as the party tries to present a rejuvenated front.
Among the new names are former Race Relations Conciliator and Chief Families Commissioner Rajen Prasad.
The others are. -
• 28-year-old Jacinda Ardern, a senior policy adviser in Britain to Home Secretary Sir Ronnie Flanagan.
• Raymond Huo, a lawyer and writer who came to New Zealand from China in 1994.
• Phil Twyford, former global head of policy for Oxfam, and who was ranked 56 in 2005.
• Council of Trade Unions secretary Carol Beaumont.
• Maori education advocate Kelvin Davis.
• Carmel Sepuloni, of Pakeha and Tongan descent, who works as an equity manager at Auckland University.
• Stuart Nash, who stood against Act New Zealand's Rodney Hide in Epsom at the last election.
Sitting MPs to suffer from Labour's rejuvenation project include Tourism Minister Damien O'Conner (37), who will face a tough battle to retain his West Coast-Tasman electorate from second-time National Party candidate Chris Auchinvole.
Other long-time MPs to feel the pain of the party's renewal process are Consumer Affairs Minister Judith Tizard (38), Taupo MP Mark Burton (39) Te Tai Tonga MP Mahara Okeroa (40), Hamilton West MP Martin Gallagher (41) and list MP Dave Hereora.
• Labour's top 10
1- Helen Clark (Mt Albert)
2- Michael Cullen (list only)
3- Phil Goff (Mt Roskill)
4- Annette King (Rongotai)
5- Parekura Horomia (Ikaroa-Rawhiti)
6- Pete Hodgson (Dunedin North)
7- Chris Carter (Te Atatu)
8- David Cunliffe (New Lynn)
9- Maryan Street (Nelson)
10- Nanaia Mahuta (Hauraki-Waikato)
For the full list, see www.odt.co.nz
