Splitting ticks an option for Southern voters

Metiria Turei
Metiria Turei
Voters throughout most of the South Island are able to consider the merits of strategic voting as they weigh their options about which boxes to tick on Saturday.

Most electorates in the South are unlikely to change hands.

Even the new ones look safe for one party or another.

Tasman-West Coast could prove tough for Labour's Damien O'Connor to hold against a predicted swing to National's Chris Auchinvole, but that should be the only one to grab any of Sunday's headlines.

For voters south of the Waitaki River, and those in the new Waitaki electorate who live north of the river, the option of splitting votes can be taken to help get the outcome they want.

It was reported at the weekend that one out of four voters intends splitting their vote.

Voters are finally waking up to the fact that the call by Labour and National for "two ticks" does not necessarily have to be followed blindly.

Act New Zealand leader Rodney Hide summed it up for the Otago Daily Times when he said giving Act a party vote meant getting its top MPs into Parliament.

A vote for National meant getting that party's bottom-ranked candidates.

National is likely to receive more votes and win more electorates than Labour.

North Island electorates such as Otaki, Taupo and Rotorua are likely to turn blue from red.

But National has fewer allies with which to form a government, so strategic voting becomes important for its supporters.

In the two Dunedin seats, Labour supporters can vote for their electorate candidate reasonably confident their two candidates will be elected.

But if they want to try and help Prime Minister Helen Clark form a Labour-led government, they should consider giving their party vote to the Greens, in the first instance, and New Zealand First in the second.

The Greens are polling comfortably above 5%, but the more votes they have, the more MPs they will take into Parliament to support Labour.

Dunedin-based Green MP Metiria Turei would also appreciate some local support.

NZ First is not likely to return to Parliament on current polling, but if it reached 5%, the party would most likely support Labour.

National supporters in Dunedin need to tick National in the party vote box to ensure Dunedin North candidate Michael Woodhouse, No 49 on the party list, enters Parliament.

A strong party vote for National would also see Dunedin South candidate Conway Powell in Parliament.

Clutha-Southland and Invercargill National supporters can vote for Bill English and Eric Roy respectively to ensure they return to Parliament but use their party vote to help their allies.

The best vote for National supporters in Southland would be Act, because Mr Hide seems sure to win Epsom but needs to take another two MPs in with him to help support a John Key-led government.

Labour voters in those two electorates need to vote Labour on the list to try to get Lesley Soper back to Parliament, given her low ranking on the list.

National voters in Waitaki can probably afford to tick Jacqui Dean for the electorate vote and Act on the party vote.

Labour voters need to decide if they want to help Miss Clark form a government by ticking Labour or the Greens.

Their candidate, Energy Minister David Parker, is high enough on Labour's list to return to Parliament without their help.

Maori roll voters face a hard decision.

They could vote for the Maori Party in the electorate vote and tick either National or Labour on the party vote, hoping that one or the other major party would take the Maori Party into coalition.

The other alternative is two ticks for Labour.

The contest for Te Tai Tonga is close and Maori voters will play a pivotal role in determining the next government.

If you support a minor party that is unlikely to make the 5% threshold, this is the time to be brutally honest about its chances.

If the party you support does not have a Rodney Hide, Winston Peters, Peter Dunne or Jim Anderton to take it into Parliament, then be aware that your votes will be redistributed among the parties who enter Parliament.

If you are a left-leaning voter, there is a high chance your vote will be redistributed to National.

 

Add a Comment