It is dangerous for Donald Trump to “follow his gut” and ignore experts, two New Zealand academics say ahead of the United States president’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Dr Peter Grace, whose landmark book Intelligence Intellectuals was published this year, says the president's tendency not to read briefs prepared for him is dangerous given the talks' high stakes.
Foreign affairs specialist Prof Robert Patman agrees, warning the Chinese leadership could outwit Trump.
The leaders of the world's two largest economies are meeting today. Discussions are expected to include US-China trade, US relations with Taiwan and the war in Iran.
Watch full interview:
Dr Grace says he thinks there is a real danger Trump will "follow his gut rather than his head".
"He tends to... make it up as he goes along, and that's dangerous in diplomacy," Dr Grace says.
Prof Patman says there are "deep concerns" in Washington and other seats of government around the world that the US president excludes people who could provide insights.
"China does take knowledge very seriously.
"There is a worry... Mr Trump may be very casual about the event, very transactional, and the Chinese may exploit that."
"I've just recently been in Washington DC, talking to intelligence people right through the community, and they have a real fear that not only are they being silenced but they're considered to be an enemy of the state."
Dr Grace's book, published by Georgetown University, is based on his research revealing academic experts revolutionised intelligence analysis during the early days of the US foreign intelligence service, the Central Intelligence Agency.
Prof Patman says Dr Grace's work turns on its head the populist argument that experts do not matter.
"Knowledge is power and it can make a difference in high level summits. There's a real worry that Mr Trump has already enhanced Chinese foreign policy with his actions in Iran and they hope that he doesn't further boost it in his visit to Beijing."
On this episode of Global Insight, Dr Grace further outlined how the CIA introduced scientific methods for analysing information and gave his views on the openness of New Zealand's intelligence community to expert advice.
Prof Patman talked about the wider implications of Dr Grace's findings and called for government and academia to work together more closely to improve policy-making.
