It will be a Highlanders side full of confidence that will enter, having gone from strength to strength over the past two games and have shown an ability to play a good style of rugby. For this reason they will start as favourites, but as we have seen so many times before, anything can happen on the night and Highlanders fans shouldn't underestimate this Waratahs team.
They have certainly been the Highlanders bogey team throughout the history of the competition, as the southern men have lost 12 matches and won just 4 in the head-to-head battle. Of these four wins only one has come in Dunedin. To add to this, the Waratahs are traditionally fast starters, more often than not playing their best rugby in the first half of the season.
This may be all in the past, but there is enough here to stop the Highlanders from being complacent. More heavily favoured Highlanders teams than this one have gone into battle with their New South Wales foes and come off second best, showing that certainly nothing is a given.
In saying this, confidence is good and they have every reason to be confident after two very good wins. These wins have come from their ability to effectively attack the breakdown and put pressure on their opponent. This has given them the majority of the possession and has provided what has proved to be a slick backline good ball to work with. Fortunately, this is how to beat the Waratahs and if they can repeat the performances of the past two weeks they should leave the field on Saturday night with a third win.
The Waratahs, like many Australian teams, tend to fan out on both attack and defence, committing no more than two or three men to the breakdown. While this can provide quick ball and allows the forwards to spread out across the ground, it also exposes the ball while on attack and opens up the possibility for turnovers. The ability to push their opponents off the ball has become a trademark of the Highlanders over the past two seasons and not committing numbers to the breakdown against them can be near suicidal.
This leaves the Waratahs with two options. Either they continue with their current style and risk a mountain of turnovers, or they change their plan and commit more numbers to the breakdowns.
While the second option may seem like an easy answer, this may not be the case as changing one's game plan can create disruptions and it's hard to operate effectively when players aren't where they are used to being. And of course, committing numbers doesn't necessarily guarantee they keep the ball, as the Highlanders have proved themselves capable of pushing through good forward packs and generally pick the right rucks to attack.
This depends on whether the Highlanders bring their physical game, but with confidence high and a plan that's working there's nothing to suggest they will change.
The other key to their game comes in their backline, which has potential to be dangerous if they get good ball. In Sarel Pretorius they have an outstanding runner who is very dangerous around the fringes and needs to be shut down. However, he doesn't possess a strong pass, taking an extra step on most occasions meaning his backline won't get the quality ball they would with a faster passer like Aaron Smith. This will reduce the effectiveness of their backline, something which could well prove to be the difference between the two teams.
They do possess talent outside Pretorius with Daniel Halangahu as a good steady first five-eighth and Tom Carter and Rob Horne providing threats in the midfield. However, the Highlanders backline should be more than a match for these men. The Highlanders backs looked very well polished against the Crusaders and if they can get the same sort of ball and operate in the same way it wouldn't be silly to expect them to run rampant.
It's still early days and the competition is still sorting itself out meaning either team could provide a surprise. But if the Highlanders can keep up what they're doing, they should have no problems claiming their third win in as many matches.
- Jeff Cheshire. I am a 19-year-old Physical Education student at the University of Otago and have lived my whole life in Dunedin. I began supporting the Highlanders at the age of 6 in the 1999 season and have followed the team religiously since then.
