Finance Minister Bill English is the master of underselling a proposal.
Better to undersell and overdeliver than the other way about, it appears, for the MP brought up in rural Southland.
The Government books, released last week, were in much better shape than Treasury had forecast but Mr English played down the result.
His take was that the Government's focus on controlling spending and freeing up money for frontline services was reflected in the Crown accounts.
To be fair, corporate tax is down, but that was to be expected in a recession.
At the same time, Crown expenses were also 2.2% below forecast, reflecting lower spending, the timing of Treaty of Waitangi settlements and deferred funding.
No-one can call Mr English a spendthrift, but how likely is it that his "decade of deficits" will come to fruition? Already, economists are peeling back that to maybe eight years.
Bank of New Zealand economists decided this week to stick their necks out on the Budget, due for delivery by Mr English on May 20.
"We might yet end up with some egg on our face.
"And we're still very much interested in the Budget's full particulars, including the finer details of the policy changes we are picking in broad respect," senior economist Craig Ebert said.
However, the changes the BNZ is forecasting are pretty much what everyone is talking about.
Tax relief comes at the top of the list, starting on October 1, this year.
The top rate is expected to drop back to 33% from 38%, with adjustments to lower-down thresholds and marginal tax rates.
Trust and corporate rates were expected to stay at 33% and 30%, respectively, for the time being.
Mr English was in Dunedin talking to Rotary recently and dropped some broad hints that there might be more relief for middle income earners than previously thought.
Income earners up to $70,000 could also be major beneficiaries of the tax adjustments.
To help pay for the tax adjustments, GST will rise to 15% from 12.5%, also coming in on October 1, the BNZ is forecasting.
At the same time, depreciation allowances on property will be cut, while leaving in place the deductibility of actual repairs and maintenance.
Mr Ebert said that because of what BNZ presumed would be included in the budget, the bank was now formally forecasting gross domestic product (all economic activity) would increase by a "handsome" 1.5% in the three months ended September.
The upgrade, from only just above 1%, principally reflected increased spending and activity to beat the GST rise of October 1.
"It's not just the predictable response from consumer spending.
"As new homes are subject to GST too, there will probably be an incentive to build a few more in advance."
Businesses would no doubt try to get in ahead of the increased GST payable on imports and stock up for the collective spend-up, stoking important activity, he said.
The same applied to expenditure on investment goods, as the Goods and Services Tax defined business services as well.
"We're not expecting a mad rush of activity in the September quarter - not to beat a price rise that would increase the price of a $50 belt to $51.11.
"But we do expect a bit of froth."
The October 1 tax cuts were being looked at to soften the blow of a rising GST.
The Budget would err on the side of being a net stimulus to the economy, Mr Ebert said.
"Of course, the deeper aims of the tax changes are to promote work effort and [diversified] saving, while discouraging over-consumption, speculation and debt.
"In pure fiscal terms, while there will be swings and roundabouts, the Government will aim to leave very few as net losers."
There were few governments around the world that could contemplate such a net injection into the economy, he said.
Most were under pressure to contract fiscal policy - some soon and savagely.
Yet the New Zealand Government could get away with a slight expansionary budget because, for a start, it was facing moderate rather than high, proportionate deficits and debt.
"More to the point, the Treasury has reasonable scope to upgrade its December economic forecasts which seemed to us conservative - at least 2010-11 - even at the time," Mr Ebert said.
