The rolls of nearly half of Dunedin's schools have slipped to their lowest or second lowest level in a decade, despite rolls across the region marginally increasing.
The schools are scattered across the city and the overall roll of Dunedin City's schools has dropped by 109 in the past year, from 13,971 in 2009 to 13,862 in 2010.
• School-by-school roll data: see today's Otago Daily Times print edition
In the Otago region, school rolls have increased by 37 pupils from 29,571 in 2009 to 29,608 in 2010.
This year, more than a third (35%) of Otago's schools posted their lowest or second lowest March roll returns in the past decade.
But almost as many (32%) posted their highest or second highest March roll returns in the past decade.
Most of these schools were in Central Otago, Mosgiel/Taieri, and the Lakes district.
About 29% of Dunedin schools posted their highest or second highest March roll return in the past decade.
Nationwide, school rolls rose by 4453 pupils (0.6%) to 749,601 in 2010.
Statistics New Zealand senior demographer Kim Dunstan believed the roll decline, particularly in Dunedin, was caused by a decline in the birth rates which began in the early 1990s.
However, births had been increasing again in Otago during the past five years, and Mr Dunstan said Otago primary schools could expect their rolls to start increasing again within the next 12 to 18 months.
It would be another five to six years before secondary schools noticed an increase.
While rolls would increase, the numbers would not be significant, he said.
He predicted the number of 0-14 year-olds living in Otago would increase by about 1000 between 2011 and 2021.
"We expect the population of 5-12 year-olds to increase by 40,000 in New Zealand between 2010 and 2019.
"The increases in Otago won't be noticed as much," Mr Dunstan said.
Otago Secondary Principals' Association chairwoman and Queen's High School principal Julie Anderson said the rolls in Dunedin were the lowest she had seen.
The declining school population in Dunedin has forced the closure of Waldronville School, Tomahawk School and Corstorphine School in the past year.
Mrs Anderson doubted more closures were to come. However, it meant secondary schools had a greater need to work together on collaborative provision for pupils in several areas, she said.
"We are already providing video conference classes across the city in areas where there are small student numbers, for example, in languages, art history, accounting, electronics and media studies classes.
"Here students from a number of schools are being taught by a teacher in a different school via video conferencing supported by online communications using a virtual learning environment," Mrs Anderson said.
Dunedin secondary schools were considering further ways to work together to provide common courses and services for pupils from several schools together.
"The smarter use of technology and online learning, which will be supported by the imminent advent of ultra fast broadband in schools, allows for more anytime, anywhere learning that is not dependent on school roll size."
