It seems even councillors do not know which way the decision will go, with the only certainty a vigorous debate.
Council sources yesterday said they could not predict the result of the finance and corporate committee meeting, when all its 11 councillors have to decide whether to recommend to the full council to fund the stadium, with conditions, or not at all.
The meeting is expected to attract anti-stadium protesters, with Dunedin Ratepayers and Householders Association chairman Syd Adie having organised a rally before the meeting.
Carisbrook Stadium Trust chairman Malcolm Farry has always said the stadium needed funding commitment from all parties before the $188 million project could go ahead.
ORC chairman Stephen Cairns said the meeting was a potential "show stopper".
"The ORC has never before addressed a funding issue of this magnitude and contestability."Asked how today's meeting would go, he declined to comment.
The meeting follows public consultation during the draft annual plan and long-term community plan over the council's involvement in funding the stadium, which resulted in 177 of the 234 submissions made on the stadium opposing it.
Only 13 submissions were in favour.
Since then, the council had received 200 emails supporting the proposal and 16 against.
To help council decision-making, the draft annual plan hearing subcommittee recommended the ORC seek further information from the Carisbrook Stadium Trust, Otago Rugby Football Union, New Zealand Rugby Football Union, University of Otago and the Dunedin City Council.
Committee members - Mr Cairns and Crs Michael Deaker, Doug Brown, David Shepherd and Duncan Butcher - and staff, had attended the meetings, except for the Carisbrook Stadium Trust meeting, to which all councillors were invited.
Mr Cairns said being "eyeball to eyeball" with those stakeholders during the past 10 days had updated councillors in full, giving them a "significant boost".
"It's as good information as we could get."
To provide balance, project opposers - Mr Adie, Dr Robert Hamlin and Bev Butler - plan to speak during the meeting's public forum.
Dr Hamlin said it was a matter of equity and he was speaking to "add balance".
The reports being presented to the committee outlined the risk factors: private funding not being achieved; construction costs exceeding $166 million; original design criteria not being met due to financial constraints; construction running overtime; higher interest rates than projected for debt servicing; and the ongoing viability of the completed project.
If the committee does send the funding proposal on to the next step, it is recommended it consider adding two new conditions to provide assurances that construction and design not exceed the stated budget of $165,400,000 and that, by keeping to budget, the design standards of the stadium not be compromised.
The council needed this information by February 16, 2009, to prepare its 2009-19 draft long-term community plan.
Seven other conditions were also to be considered by the committee, including the Dunedin City Council's involvement in the project, the requirement for a roof, capping the amount of ORC funding at $37.5 million and the DCC's at not less than $85 million, and certainty of funding from all sources.
If the committee recommended supporting the stadium, it also needed to consider how the council would decide to fund it.
After hearing submissions backing targeted uniform rates over capital value, the hearing panel has recommended the proposal be funded by a 50% targeted uniform rate with the other costs recovered on a capital value basis over 10 years, including a distance variable.
The Dunedin City Council planning and environment committee this week voted to adopt a district plan change request from the stadium trust that, if successful, will change Awatea St industrially zoned land to allow an extension to the campus zone, and a new stadium zone.
Adopting the change means the council will accept the responsibility and costs of processing it.
The request will be publicly notified.
